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We study the association between weight fluctuation and activity tracking in an on-line population of thousands of individuals using digital health trackers (1,749 ≤ N ≤ 14,411, depending on the activity tracker considered) with millions of recorded activities (119,292 ≤ N ≤ 2,221,382) over the years 2013–2015.

In a first between-subject analysis, we found a positive association between activity tracking frequency and weight loss. Users who log food with moderate frequency lost an additional 0.63% (CI [0.55, 0.72]; p < .001) of their body weight per month relative to low frequency loggers. Frequent workout loggers lost an additional 0.38% (CI [0.20, 0.56]; p < .001) and frequent weight loggers lost an additional 0.40% (CI [0.33, 0.47]; p < .001) as compared to infrequent loggers.

In a subsequent within-subject analysis on a subset of the population (799 ≤ N ≤ 6,052) with sufficient longitudinal data, we used fixed effect models to explore the temporal relationship between a change in tracking adherence and weight change. We found that for the same individual, weight loss is significantly higher during periods of high adherence to tracking vs. periods of low adherence: +2.74% of body weight lost per month (CI [2.68, 2.81]; p < .001) during adherent weight tracking, +1.35% per month (CI [1.26, 1.43]; p < .001) during adherent food tracking, and +0.60% per month (CI [0.44, 0.76]; p < .001) during adherent workout tracking.

The findings suggest that adherence to activity tracking can be utilized as a convenient real-time predictor of weight fluctuations, enabling large-scale, personalized intervention strategies.

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